HDTV Polls at AVSForum.com

February 2004

On February 12-16, 2004, four interrelated polls were conducted at AVSForum.com to get a snapshot of HDTV adoption among forum members. These polls were conducted in a manner that maximized the likelihood that they fairly represent the membership of the forum. A snapshot of the results of these polls is shown below. Note that these polls are not closed, so the current numbers that you may see in these polls would be higher. We took a snapshot of the polls at an opportune time for this analysis. It is very highly unlikely that the percentages will change in a meaningful manner from this snapshot.

HDTV Poll: Satellite, Cable, OTA? – as of 2/16/04 12:00pm	HDTV Poll - What type of HDTV do you have? – as of 2/16/04 12:00pm

HDTV Poll - the size of your HDTV? – as of 2/16/04 12:00pm	HDTV Poll - the aspect ratio of your HDTV – as of 2/16/04 12:00pm

Analysis – HDTV Source

We use the HDTV Poll: Satellite, Cable, OTA? poll results to estimate the number of televisions that are currently receiving HDTV from cable, satellite or Over-the-air. As a starting point we use recent numbers from DirecTV -- 12,150,000 total subscribers and 260,000 HDTV subscribers at the end of 2003. We slightly increased the DirecTV HDTV subscribers to 300,000.

Assumption 1: We then first assumed that all services are evenly represented at AVSForum, and that this poll evenly represents AVSForum membership. Using the 300,000/166 ratio obtained from DirecTV, we extrapolated the projected HDTV subscribers for the other services as well as OTA. By using the total subscriber numbers released by each service, we computed the %age HDTV penetration for each service. For VOOM, we don’t have any released figures for their total subscribers, so we assumed that all VOOM subscribers are also HDTV subscribers.

Assumption 2: The DirecTV number in this poll really jumps out as very high. It may very well be that DirecTV leads other services by a wide margin. But to give other services the benefit of doubt, we assumed that DirecTV is overrepresented in this poll by a margin of 2 to1, so we cut their poll number by 50% and used a count of 83 instead. Note that this is very arbitrary, and perhaps overcompensating. We assumed that other services are fairly represented at the forum and in this poll. Using the 300,000/83 ratio obtained from DirecTV, we extrapolated the projected HDTV subscribers for the other services as well as OTA. By using the total subscriber numbers released by each service, we computed the %age HDTV penetration for each service. The results from this assumption more closely tally with limited figures on HDTV subscribers released by Comcast, Time Warner and others.

Even if neither assumption mirrors reality, it is possible that they provide the boundaries around it – so that the reality may be somewhere in between the two sets of numbers.

Of course, any analysis based on such a forum poll and with so many assumptions is inherently imprecise and should be taken with a big pinch of salt. Even at best, these results can only be used as very rough ballpark estimates.

We hope to continue to refine this analysis, as well as repeat this poll every few months.

			Projection – Assumption 1		Projection - Assumption 2
Service	Subscribers	Poll Count	Projected HDTV Subscribers	% HDTV Penetration	Projected HDTV Subscribers	% HDTV Penetration
Comcast Corporation	21,364,100	51	92,169	0.43%	184,337	0.86%
Time Warner Cable	10,938,000	23	41,566	0.38%	83,133	0.76%
Charter Communications	6,486,900	4	7,229	0.11%	14,458	0.22%
Cox Communications	6,278,500	12	21,687	0.35%	43,373	0.69%
Adelphia Communications	5,116,000	8	14,458	0.28%	28,916	0.57%
DirecTV	12,150,000	166	300,000	2.47%	300,000	2.47%
Echostar Dish Network	9,441,000	29	52,410	0.56%	104,819	1.11%
Other: Cable & Satellite	13,000,000	30	54,217	0.42%	108,434	0.83%
VOOM	-	9	16,265	100.00%	32,530	100.00%
OTA Only	-	98	177,108		354,217
Total Cable and Satellite	84,790,765	332	600,000	0.71%	900,000	1.06%

Total including OTA	-	430	777,108	-	1,254,217	-

Observations on HDTV Source

We use assumption 2 for these observations.

1. DirecTV has the highest penetration about 2.5% (excluding VOOM of course).

2. E* is much further behind with around 1%.

3. Cable lags behind satellite with penetration around 0.8%. Two cable companies -- Charter and Adelphia -- lag even further behind with penetratiions of .22% and .57% respectively.

4. The average penetration for all cable and satellite companies is about 1%. This number is significantly lower than 4% to 5% HDTV penetration numbers that are sometimes used. We believe that the 1% number is closer to the actual penetration today.

These observations are consistent with the history of HDTV offerings from these services. DirecTV has not only been offering HDTV programming the longest, but also has the benefit of state of the art HDTV receivers available from many vendors for quite some time. Other cable and satellite companies (except VOOM of course) have been lagging behind in both their programming offerings and their hardware. As an example, most cable customers are even now unable to get HDTV receivers with DVI/HDMI outputs, a crucial element in maximizing picture quality in high definition sets.

Please post all comments on this analysis and poll in this HDTV Poll: Satellite, Cable, OTA? thread.

Analysis - HDTV Sets: Type, Size and Aspect Ratio

We combined two polls – HDTV Poll - What type of HDTV do you have? and HDTV Poll - the aspect ratio of your HDTV – into the following table.

Type of TV	Poll Count	Percent
CRT	54.00	16.6%
CRT 3:4	13.50	4.1%
CRT 16:9	40.50	12.4%
LCD Panel	7.00	2.1%
Plasma - ED	12.00	3.7%
Plasma - HD	20.00	6.1%
DLP RPTV	36.00	11.0%
LCD RPTV	34.00	10.4%
LCoS RPTV	3.00	0.9%
CRT RPTV	125.00	38.3%
CRT RPTV 3:4	9.41	2.9%
CRT RPTV 16:9	115.59	35.5%
Front Projector	35.00	10.7%
Front Projector 3:4	5.53	1.7%
Front Projector 16:9	29.47	9.0%

All Digital	112.00	34.4%
All Flat Panels	39.00	12.0%
All Plasma	32.00	9.8%
All Digital RPTV	73.00	22.4%
All Analog (CRT, CRT RPTV)	179.00	54.9%
All 4:3	28.43	8.7%
All 16:9	297.57	91.3%
Total	326.00	100.0%

Observations on HDTV Sets

1. In HDTV Poll - the size of your HDTV? poll, forum member have indicated the sweet spot for set sizes -– 50”-59” -- with 40% of the sets in this range. The remaining sets are evenly divided in smaller and larger sizes. This median HDTV set size is about double the median set size for SDTV’s. This is not surprising because HDTV provides a great picture at any size, and with a large size we can recreate a theater experience at home.

2. Analog sets – CRT and CRT RPTV -- comprise a majority of HDTV’s today (55% of total). This is not surprising, considering they continue to offer a combination of very good picture quality and value in all sizes.

3. Digital sets -- Plasma, LCD, DLP, and LCoS – comprise one third of the total. It will be interesting to track the pace at which digital sets may increase their market share over time.

4. Of the digital sets, digital RPTV’s comprise two-third (22% of total), with DLP and LCD taking up almost equal share. Most of these sets are likely to be in 50” or higher sizes. Flat panels comprise one-third of digital sets (12% of total), and they are mostly Plasma. The reason for this skew is almost certainly driven by size – forum members have indicated a clear preference for larger size HDTV’s. Digital RPTV’s remain economical at large sizes, whereas large size flat panels get very expensive.

5. Only less than 10% of HDTV sets are 4:3, almost all of them being analog.

Please post all comments on this analysis and these polls in this HDTV Poll - What type of HDTV do you have? thread.